Jacksonville Condo Market: Why One Segment Is Dropping

By Matty Miller

With a track record defined by precision and local expertise, Matty Miller is a cornerstone of the Jacksonville real estate market. Since 2017, Matty has successfully navigated over 200 real estate transactions, earning his Broker’s license in 2019 to provide a higher tier of service to his clients. Currently overseeing a single-family property portfolio valued at over $50 million, Matty specializes in the strategic management and acquisition of high-value assets across the First Coast. His approach combines deep market data with a boots-on-the-ground understanding of Jacksonville’s unique neighborhoods. Whether working with institutional investors or individual homeowners, Matty delivers the seasoned perspective required to maximize value in Florida's most dynamic coastal markets.

Some parts of the Jacksonville market are struggling right now while others are moving along just fine. If you only look at citywide numbers, you’ll never see the difference. I ran into this on a listing recently, and the numbers changed on me while the property was still active.

Markets move in subsections. The one worth breaking down is the $250,000-and-below condo and townhome market. Condos and townhomes in that range behave differently than single-family homes, and right now they’re changing much faster. My recent lesson came from one unit on the Southside. It’s a mid-level two-bedroom townhome, somewhere around 1,100 to 1,180 square feet, in an area with a lot of condos around it. These are common units, popular with first-time buyers and younger people who want to be close to the town center with an easy commute downtown.

The numbers moved mid-listing. When we were talking about selling this unit three to four months ago, we were running about $150 to $155 a square foot on comparable properties in the area. We’d been on the market a little over two months when I went back and reran the numbers. The properties that actually sold averaged $143 a square foot. Average pricing in that segment dropped $8 a square foot in almost 90 days. By then we’d already dropped the price a couple of times, which meant we were chasing it.

Chasing the market never catches it. In that segment, buyers come in low, and sellers take it. They’re accepting lower offers month after month, which is a little crazy to watch. If you price at the market and the market keeps sliding, you adjust, adjust again, and never quite catch it. Meanwhile, your holding costs are keeping up with you, and every month shifts enough to move the target. At some point you’re hanging in the balance, waiting to decide when to pull the trigger.

Price below the market instead. To avoid that pitfall, price below the market, not at it. Picture the market as one line and your price as another. Starting at the bottom gets you sold quickly, while starting at market and adjusting down keeps you running parallel to it the whole way. Our comps were showing around 72 days to sell, and we’d already been sitting for almost two months. If it’s going to take another 75 or 90 days regardless, you may as well start there, get the same number, and skip the wait. I’ll say clearly that this strategy doesn’t apply to every subsection of every market. It applies to this one, right now, for the reasons the numbers show.

Rate sensitivity explains the split. When interest rates go up and there’s fear in the economy, this is just human behavior. The people struggling most are the ones for whom $200 or $300 a month matters a lot. Single family values across most of Jacksonville have stayed pretty flat, since two or three hundred bucks doesn’t move the needle as much at that price point. For first-time buyers and people on fixed incomes looking at condos and townhomes, that same interest rate means a lot and it hurts them. They’re fine sitting, waiting, and lowballing you until you have to sell.

One segment, not the whole market. I’m not fearful of a collapse here. The post-COVID market shot prices way up, one subsection probably got overvalued along the way, and now it’s settling back toward where it should be. How far the reset goes, I don’t know, and I’m not here to predict the future. What I can do is read the trending data and adjust to it. We haven’t had a fast changing market like this in a little while, and that’s the part worth paying attention to.

If you’re looking to buy or sell in a specific subsection of this market, let me know and we’ll run the numbers together. I’d rather do the deep dive up front than watch a price get chased down for three months. Call or text me at 904-650-3890, email me at matty@pursuitrealestate.com, or visit mattymillerrealestate.com. Understanding the data matters, and I’m happy to walk you through what yours actually says.