October 2025 Jacksonville Housing Market Update

Markets don’t stay hot forever, and that’s not a bad thing. After several years of record-breaking growth, Jacksonville real estate is finally settling into a healthier, more balanced rhythm.

As we move into the holiday season, the signs of a normalizing market are clear, and that’s good news for both buyers and sellers. Here’s what’s really happening right now, and what it means if you’re planning a move soon.

How post-pandemic migration pushed Jacksonville prices higher. You’ve probably heard people say the housing market is too expensive or that interest rates are out of control. The truth is, today’s rates are actually normal. FHA and VA loans are in the high 5% range, and conventional loans are in the low 6s, both within a healthy historical range.

The bigger issue is how much prices have risen since the pandemic. Over the past four to five years, home values in Jacksonville have increased about 40% and in some neighborhoods, even more.

That jump was fueled by a major migration to Florida during and after the pandemic. Many people moved here from the Northeast, Midwest, and West Coast, drawn by lifestyle and opportunity. The demand was huge, money was cheap, and the market overheated.

Now, we’re seeing that spike calm down, not crash, but settle into a healthier pace.

The market shifts from frenzy to a softer rhythm. When we look back at the data, the busiest years for Jacksonville real estate were 2020 and 2021, when homes were selling faster than ever. Since then, the number of closed sales has gone down each year.

In 2025, sales peaked in May and June, then began to drop sharply through July, August, and September. If the trend continues, we’ll likely finish the year with the lowest sales volume we’ve seen in five to seven years.

Compared to last year, sales are already down about 8 percent. I expect activity to stay slower through the winter and pick up again in the spring.

Sellers face a changing market. For sellers, the biggest shift isn’t in home values, it’s in buyer behavior. Prices haven’t dropped much, but the way deals are being made has changed. Buyers are negotiating again and holding more leverage than they’ve had in years. Offers are often coming in $15,000 to $20,000 below the asking price, sometimes with concessions added in. Very few homes are selling at full price, and buyers are taking their time before making a move.

If you need to sell soon, pricing strategy is everything. The market has flattened, and waiting for prices to rise again could backfire. Buyers know they can negotiate, so setting a fair, realistic price upfront is your best move.

A calmer market gives buyers more breathing room. For buyers, this is the most balanced market we’ve seen in quite some time. Pending sales are down about 36% to 37%, and homes are sitting on the market for 50 to 60 days on average. By winter, that could stretch to 70 or even 80 days.

This slower pace gives buyers more flexibility. You can take your time, compare homes, and make offers that fit your budget. There’s no pressure to rush or compete in bidding wars like we saw just a few years ago.

Let’s be clear, this isn’t a crash. It’s a soft landing. Prices are easing slightly, but the market’s fundamentals remain strong. Activity has slowed, but that’s part of a healthy adjustment after years of rapid growth.

In the months ahead, we could see prices dip another 5% to 10%, not from panic, but as the market continues to rebalance. Jacksonville real estate is finding its footing again, and that stability is a good thing for everyone.

If you’d like detailed market data for your neighborhood or subdivision, I can pull customized analytics to help you make the best decision for your goals. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on the market, reach out to me at (904) 650-3890 or email me at Matty@PursuitRealEstate.com. I’m here to help you understand where Jacksonville real estate is headed.